2025年12月31日，中信期货发表了一篇基金行业的研究报告，报告指出，金属供给约束与汇率波动影响市场走势。

报告摘要如下：
Metals: Recent price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment and profit-taking activities. In the medium to long term, some non-ferrous metals still face supply constraints, and investors are also turning to precious metals to hedge risks such as unregulated fiscal expansion. Therefore, the upward trend logic remains intact.

Equity Indices: The recent consecutive rise of the Shanghai Composite Index may be attributed to the concentrated subscriptions of A500 ETFs. However, substantial bullish momentum has not yet converged, and there is a risk of a subsequent pullback. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy of dividend-oriented equities plus long positions on CSI 500 Index futures (IC), and patiently wait for the "Spring Rally".

Forex: A weaker US dollar, a rising A-share market and concentrated forex settlement at the year-end have driven the USD/CNY exchange rate to break below the 7.0 threshold. Nevertheless, the central bank may curb the risk of excessive RMB appreciation in the short term. The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to trade within the range of 6.8–7.2 in 2026, with opportunities from RMB appreciation worthy of attention.

Risks: upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand and incremental policy support, while downside risks stem from the possibility of concentrated capital outflows.

金属方面，近期价格波动主因市场情绪与资金止盈。中长期来看，部分有色金属仍面临供给约束，投资者也选择利用贵金属来对冲财政无序扩张等，因此向上逻辑并没有发生改变。
股指方面，近期沪指连续上涨或因A500ETF集中申购，实质多头力量并未汇聚，且存在后续退潮风险，建议采取红利+IC多单防守，耐心等待春季躁动行情。
汇率方面，美元走弱、A股上扬、集中结汇等推动美元兑人民币破“7”，但央行短期或防范人民币过快升值风险。预计2026年美元兑人民币运行区间为6.8-7.2，关注人民币升值机会。
风险因素：需求超预期（上行）；增量政策超预期（上行）；资金集中离场（下行）


Related Reports 相关报告:
20251126 China Futures Annual Outlook 中国期货2026年度展望
20251218 China Fiscal Policy Outlook：Moderate Expandsion？ 2026年中国财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张
20251217 China Monetary Policy Outlook：Moderate Easing？ 2026中国货币政策展望：如何理解适度宽松
20251210 Policy Readings on the Politburo Meeting in December 2025年12月政治局会议联合点评
20251225 Silver Price Rise Accelerate With Mid-term Potential 白银上涨加速，中期空间仍可期待
20251228 Expectations of Slower Supply Growth Boost Copper Prices 供应增速放缓预期推升铜价


温馨提示：投资有风险，选择需谨慎。